{"id":20,"date":"2006-01-26T18:01:43","date_gmt":"2006-01-27T02:01:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.awadallah.com\/blog\/?p=20"},"modified":"2006-01-26T18:01:43","modified_gmt":"2006-01-27T02:01:43","slug":"so-what-exactly-is-google-going-to-miss","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.awadallah.com\/blog\/so-what-exactly-is-google-going-to-miss\/","title":{"rendered":"So what exactly is Google going to miss ?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div><span class=\"880072101-27012006\"><font face=\"Courier New\" size=\"2\">I got a bunch of emails from folks asking me to clarify a bit on what exactly is Google going to miss ?\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>My guesstimate for the Wallstreet &#8220;whisper&#8221; number is $2050M in gross revenues for Q4-2005, that would represent a 30% increase over Q3-2005 (the consensus official estimates are obviously less than this).<\/p>\n<p>I reason that Google will miss that 30% sequential growth since their Q4 search PVs only grew by around 8% from Q3 (src: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.comscore.com\/press\/release.asp?press=694\">Comscore<\/a>). That would mean that their RPS (Revenue Per Search) has to grow by 20%+ during Q4 to bridge the gap between 8% and 30%. I do not think is feasible without significant changes, e.g. more ads above the results, larger descriptions for the ads, or significant increase in CPCs.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>In 2004, Google search PVs grew by 14% from Q3 to Q4, and their revenues grew by 28%. So RPS just needed to bridge the gap between 14% and 28%, which is doable; given that they were making lots of monetization improvements at the time. However, its very hard for the RPS this year to close the gap between 8% natural search volume growth and the 30% anticipated by the bulls.<\/p>\n<p>Anyway, on Tues Jan 31st all shall be revealed &#8230;<\/p>\n<p>&#8212; amr\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>PS: Thanks to <a href=\"http:\/\/www.heynorton.org\/blog\/2006\/01\/predicting_goog.html\">Ken Norton<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.siliconbeat.com\/entries\/2006\/01\/23\/monday_morning_catchup_in_silicon_valley_lots_happening.html\">Silicon Beat<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.caterina.net\/archive\/000924.html\">Caterina Fake<\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/battellemedia.com\/archives\/002255.php\">John Battelle<\/a> for the mentions &#8230;<br \/>\n<\/font><\/span><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I got a bunch of emails from folks asking me to clarify a bit on what exactly is Google going to miss ?\u00a0\u00a0 My guesstimate for the Wallstreet &#8220;whisper&#8221; number is $2050M in gross revenues for Q4-2005, that would represent a 30% increase over Q3-2005 (the consensus official estimates are obviously less than this). I [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-20","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-work"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.awadallah.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.awadallah.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.awadallah.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.awadallah.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.awadallah.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=20"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.awadallah.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.awadallah.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=20"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.awadallah.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=20"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.awadallah.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=20"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}